Men stumble over the truth from time to time, but most pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing happened. -- Winston Churchill

All truths are easy to understand once they are discovered; the point is to discover them. -- Galileo Galilei

I never give them hell. I just tell the truth and they think it's hell. -- Harry Truman

Location: Wichita, Kansas

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Monday, March 06, 2006

Will Fertility Defeat Liberals?

Some are theorizing that the culture wars will be won not by issues or politics, per se, but rather by fecundity and demographics. They believe that liberal secularists will ultimately be defeated by their dwindling numbers. The theory is that several factors will contribute to disparities between populations that tend to be conservative and those that tend to be liberals, with conservatives having the edge. Here are factors that they point to:

Demographics point to higher birth rates among traditionally oriented families with a religious orientation. In the United States, fully 47 percent of people who attend church weekly say that the ideal family size is three or more children, as compared to only 27 percent of those who seldom attend church.

The centers of liberal strength are losing population while conservative areas of the country are gaining population. In 2004, President Bush carried 97 of the nation's 100 fastest-growing counties. The fertility rate in the states that went for Kerry is 12% lower than in the Bush states. Vermont produces an annual average of 49 children for every 1,000 women of child-bearing age; in Utah, where 71% of the population voted for Mr Bush, the figure is 91.

The most overwhelmingly Democratic cities, like Seattle, Boston or San Francisco, are also the cities with the lowest percentages of children. In contrast, the Sunbelt reaching from Florida to Arizona is gaining in both business and population, and tilting increasingly to the Republican party. Even in California, the highest population growth is in the inland area which runs conservative.

The “Roe Effect”, which postulates that abortion rates are higher among women who tend to vote Democratic than those who vote Republican. It would seem intuitive that those who support abortion are more likely to have one. In addition, there is a racial aspect to abortion rates. Black women, for example, have a higher abortion ratio (percentage of pregnancies aborted) than Hispanic women, whose abortion ratio in turn is higher than that of non-Hispanic whites.

The shift toward an aging population due to the “baby boomers” will favor conservatives, as there is a general tendency for greater conservatism with age.

Is this nonsense or sound analysis? Let us know what you think.

Comments on "Will Fertility Defeat Liberals?"


Blogger gordontaylor said ... (10:12 PM) : 

I like this post and I wonder if there are any data on a state like mine. New York is overwhelmingly blue to most people, but it's only because of the way the population is distrubuted.

The metro NYC area is Blue, the majority of the rest of the state is Red. Yet, the metro NYC population exceeds the rest of the state and therefore at a state or national we can't get any where except to produce a Hillary or a Chuckie.

It is so frustrating!


Blogger Joshua said ... (10:13 PM) : 

I blogged about this subject last week, albeit with secularism as the endangered worldview instead of liberalism (although the two tend to go hand-in-hand). Here is how I concluded my piece:

So, short of launching a rebellion or separatist movement against an increasingly likely [...] era of Christianized soft secularism, what's a hard-secularist to do? The options for people like me do seem to be limited. After all (and somehow I get the feeling this is going to become one of my catch-phrases), those who dare stand athwart history and yell "Stop!" usually end up as road pizza.

On the other hand, if twelve prominent Muslim and non-Muslim intellectuals can stand together against the mighty forces of Islamic theocracy, maybe the hard secularists and centrist libertarians of America can convince the
[mainstream Christian right], or at least rank-and-file Christians who might otherwise cast their lot with the MCR, that the wall of separation is still worth leaving to stand, if not reinforcing. Even in these uncertain times, hope springs eternal.


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